Construction-Induced Enrollment Analysis

MAPC Data Services analyzed the the impact of school construction on district enrollment in Massachusetts public school districts before and after major school construction or renovation projects that took place between 1996 and 2006. The primary goal of this effort, conducted for the Massachusetts School Building Authority (MSBA) was to ascertain whether enrollment increases after construction or renovation of a school facility above and beyond what would have been projected to occur in the absence of a construction event?

Based on nearly 200 school construction events, MAPC found that grades experiencing construction events are statistically likely to experience only a very small increase (~1%) in grade-to-grade ratios in the year a new or renovated school opens, an effect which diminishes over time. For example, an 800 student school is likely to see enrollment increase by 9 students in the first year after a school opens. The results of this analysis can be used to inform MSBA’s enrollment projections.